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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."